本届英语演讲比赛的主题是Ideas Worth Sharing，旨在鼓励选手们就自己关注的主题发表独立见解。
IDEAS WORTH SHARING
Can you imagine these: Ma Yun talked with me with admiration. My friend is Hillary Clinton’s daughter, and Clinton treats me just like her second daughter. Dr. Kissinger wished me “Happy Birthday”. President Obama invited me to a state banquet. When I am short of money, Rupert Murdoch will invest me. And… Oh, I admit I tell a lie, and it wasn’t me. But what I told you just now is really a true life of a girl who I will introduce to you today.
Elizabeth Holmes, a beautiful and clever girl, went to Stanford University, but dropped out of it at the age of 19 and entered into business. Because she was afraid of injections, she changed the world with a drop of blood — yes, just a drop of blood — and quickly set up a company which was valued at more than 9 billion dollars, and her social status reached at 3 billion dollars when she was just 30 — Whoops! I’m sorry that I can’t control myself, but it’s 3, billion, dollars!
Elizabeth’s story is encouraging and realistic. She founded a project just because of her fear, and hoped that the doctor would draw less blood from patients. So she wanted to invent a new type of medical technology that can measure hundreds of your physiological indicators just from one or two drops of your blood.
Does it sound incredible? Yes! At first, everyone thought that her fantasy was impossible. But she made it! Elizabeth was just a genius with business talent and ambition. She had a smart mind that no one in the world has ever had, and she found a business opportunity from a cheap drop of blood.
So, that is her story… But wait! Do you think this is the end of the story? No!
In fact, it is impossible to detect most diseases accurately only by a drop of blood from the fingertip. But Elizabeth was eager to make money, and she was uncompromising about perfection, just like her idol Steven Jobs. But with her ability, she couldn’t create such a thing she dreamed. So what could she do? There was only one answer: fabricate!
She cheated everybody, including Ma Yun, Hillary Clinton and President Obama and so on. Someone finally exposed her, because time is the best witness. And it became one of the biggest business scams in the United States! OMG! Such a big scam can show that Elizabeth is extremely smart. But unfortunately, she used it in a wrong way; otherwise she may own a really successful life.
This was the most regrettable story in 2018 — the falling of the so-called “female Jobs”.
“Attitude is everything! If you want to succeed, you must be brave enough to do what many people do not dare forever, forever! Just listen to what I told you, and you can earn ten thousand dollars a month, marry the beauties, and ascend to the peak of your lives!”
Don’t misunderstand, I am not a master of success. But haven’t you ever heard of some courses about how to be successful? They teach you to work hard and be positive, take chances and be more creative. There’s another example. You can usually see Steven Jobs, Bill Gates and other successful personages in many reports. People sum up their characteristics in common, and get an answer that people who are like these could succeed, right?
But the truth is: if you believe so, you are cheated. Today, I’m going to introduce the underlying principle to you, which is called survivorship bias. In another word, we can explain it as “dead people can’t talk”.
Survivorship bias is not a kind of bias. What it expresses is contradicting a logical error: when all information is collected from survivors, it might be a little different from the truth.
Survivorship bias is a conception which came from World War II. In 1941, the allies made a statistical analysis of planes which flied back from battlefields about how seriously they were wounded. They got hurt on fuselages, wings or tails, no doubt that fuselage was the key part of a plane, but the result showed that those planes whose wings were shot got more damages.
You might wonder the reason, then you may get into a logical misunderstanding. The truth is that the statistics gave a wrong answer, because most of those planes which were shot at their fuselages never came back. A statistician suggested doing more safeguard on fuselages and explained the result as a survivorship bias. After obeying such a suggestion, fewer and fewer planes were damaged in the war.
We would see some examples like this in our daily lives. “People who haven’t arrived yet, hands up please.” Then you’ll see no one raises his or her hand, so the one who asks the question gets a result, “Okay, everyone’s here now.” What a joke!
But most of the time, survivorship bias happens more secretly. Like what I’ve mentioned at the very beginning, there are many successful people in the world, but the losers are much more. They did exactly what the top people did, but it just didn’t work. However, their voices won’t be recorded because they are nobody. When I myself was a child, I waved my arms on the slopes and tried so hard to fly in the sky, just because my father told me, “Attitude is everything!” And at last, my attitude and my arms were both broken!
As a psychologist said, “If you tried to sum up what achievers have in common, I would say it’s luck.”
Hello, everyone. My name is Annie. I’m very happy to be here to talk about my school life. My school life was very interesting. So let’s talk about it!
My school is called ‘Globe’. As for the five letters, G stands for give, L stands for love, O means open, B means believe and E is elegant. I want to be an elegant lady in the future. I also want to give my love to the people who need help. And I also want to open my heart to everyone.
My school is a private school, so there aren’t too many students here. But everything we learn is a little bit hard, so we have to work very hard, but it can’t stop our happy school life.
There are many subjects in our class, such as English, math, Chinese, geography, biology and American history.
My favorite subject is English. And some people will ask me, “Why do you like English best?” Because I think that English is very interesting, and I think that if I learn more languages, then l can know more about the other things in the other countries.
But the most precious thing that I cherish is the friendship in my school. There is an old saying “A friend in need is a friend indeed’’. I think friendship is very important in my life. We can share our happiness and sorrow with friends. We spent happy hours together. I love to play with my classmates and my friends. There are some pictures about my classmate, and there are also some pictures about my friends.
And there are also some activities that can help us get closer to the nature, or our classmates and teachers. I like the sports meeting and the camping. These activities strengthen our relationship with our classmates and teachers.
I love my school very much, and I’ll remember my school life forever.
My presentation is over, thank you for listening. Do you have any questions or suggestions?
一等奖 徐一菲 陈叙含 薛婉馨 黄宇晨
二等奖 段安芮 程忆南 唐望博 王雅珏 周绅霖 詹馥宁
三等奖 张幸纾 魏钰珂 左欣可 黎柏雅 孙 桐 银牧南